Everyday Research Methods

Americans who can locate North Korea prefer diplomacy

Can you find North Korea on this map? Credit: ASDFGH/Wikimedia Commons

Readers can explore several frequency and association claims in this New York Times story headlined, "If Americans Can Find North Korea on a Map, They're More Likely to Prefer Diplomacy."

The story reports that when shown a map of East Asia (like the one shown here), only 36% of Americans could correctly locate the country of North Korea. The country has been in the news a lot lately because it has launched ballistic missiles. What should the American response be to such aggression? 

An experiment led by Kyle Dropp of Morning Consult from April 27-29, conducted at the request of The New York Times, shows that respondents who could correctly identify North Korea tended to view diplomatic and nonmilitary strategies more favorably than those who could not. These strategies included imposing further economic sanctions, increasing pressure on China to influence North Korea and conducting cyberattacks against military targets in North Korea.

They also viewed direct military engagement – in particular, sending ground troops – much less favorably than those who failed to locate North Korea.

a) The finding that only 36% of Americans can locate North Korea on a map is what kind of claim? How would you state the variable(s) involved in this claim? 

b) The report says "respondents who could correctly identify North Korea tended to view diplomatic and nonmilitary strategies more favorably than those who could not." What kind of claim is this? What are the variable(s) involved in this claim? 

c) In the quoted text above, the journalist called this "An experiment." It's not--how come? 

The lead image in the story (linked here), depicts people's guesses about where North Korea is located. Could you locate it? 

d) Go to the story now and scroll down about half way to see how they have presented correlations between "Knowing where North Korea is" and their endorsement of various responses to North Korean aggression. What does a negative number mean in this table?

e) Make a prediction: Whom do you think is more likely to know where North Korea is: Men or women?  Democrats or Republicans? People who've visited another country or those who've never been abroad? Older or younger Americans?

Now, scroll down the story to the pink bar graphs and see if your predictions were supported.

 

TOMS shoes investigates its aid-in-kind program

How does TOMS' aid-in-kind program impact communities? Photo Credit: Jackie Ellis / Alamy Stock Photo"

If you have purchased a pair of TOMS shoes, you may remember a tag promising that with each pair purchased, TOMS will donate a pair to a child who needs them. This kind of charity is called "aid-in-kind." Does this kind of aid help to improve people's lives? Or might it have no effect or even a negative effect?  This Economist article summarizes some potential downsides to aid-in-kind philanthropy:

Handing out aid in kind gives plenty to worry about. It could suck life from local markets, and foster a culture of aid-dependency. Handing out goods rather than cash runs the risk of spending money on things people neither need nor want.

The Economist article points out that TOMS took the bold step of deciding to test whether their free shoes program was having positive or negative effects on communities. They conducted a randomized experiment with several dependent variables. The journalist describes how the company

...asked a group of academics to investigate and gave them assurances that they could publish whatever they liked. In late 2012 they randomly picked which of 1,578 children across 18 rural communities in El Salvador would receive pairs of TOMS’ black-canvas, rubber-soled shoes. By comparing the places and children who received the shoes with ones that did not, they could work out how much these boots really gave back.

a) What was the independent variable in this study? Was the experiment  independent groups or within groups, and how do you know?

b) Now, read the following description and identify three of the dependent variables they measured:

[they] found that TOMS was not wrecking local markets. On average, for every 20 pairs of shoes donated, people bought just one fewer pair locally—a statistically insignificant effect. The second study also found that the children liked the shoes. Some boys complained they were for “pregnant women” and some mothers griped that they didn’t have laces. But more than 90% of the children wore them.

c) Here are some more findings--name these dependent variables, too (there are at least six more mentioned here):

Unfortunately, the academics failed to find much other good news. They found handing out the free shoes had no effect on overall shoelessness, shoe ownership (older shoes were presumably thrown away), general health, foot health or self-esteem. “We thought we might find at least something,” laments Bruce Wydick, one of the academics. “They were a welcome gift to the children…but they were not transformative.”

More worrying, whereas 66% of the children who were not given the shoes agreed that “others should provide for the needs of my family”, among those who were given the shoes the proportion rose to 79%. “It’s easier to stomach aid-dependency when it comes with tangible impacts,” says Mr Wydick.

d) The results for general health, foot health, and self-esteem were null effects, which you can read about in Chapter 11. One probable reason the study found a null effect is that giving out free shoes doesn't actually impact people's health or self-esteem. What are some other possible reasons for this null effect? (Use Table 11.2 to guide your answer). 

Coda: 

You might be interested to learn how TOMS has reacted to these results. They have used the research to refine their program: 

The findings have prompted TOMS to change its strategy. It is adopting approaches more likely to have a big impact, such as matching purchases of sunglasses with free sight-correction. Increasingly it gives shoes as rewards for children who join community-building projects. 

For another story on how researchers can use randomized trials to investigate charities, check out this past blog entry.