Early in the research methods course you learn about the theory-data cycle (Chapter 1). You also learn about the benefits of scientific reasoning over informal, everyday reasoning such as intuition, experience, or authority (Chapter 2). The QAnon conspiracy theory is a good example of several principles in these two chapters.
The quotes from this post come from this excellent story in The Atlantic, by journalist Adrienne LaFrance.
In case you have never heard of the QAnon conspiracy theory, it started from a series of posts by an anonymous author named Q, who posted occasionally on anonymous "image boards" such as 4chan. Here is a quick recap by LaFrance:
In its broadest contours, the QAnon belief system looks something like this: Q is an intelligence or military insider with proof that corrupt world leaders are secretly torturing children all over the world; the malefactors are embedded in the deep state; Donald Trump is working tirelessly to thwart them. (“These people need to ALL be ELIMINATED,” Q wrote in one post.) The eventual destruction of the global cabal is imminent, Q prophesies, but can be accomplished only with the support of patriots who search for meaning in Q’s clues. To believe Q requires rejecting mainstream institutions, ignoring government officials, battling apostates, and despising the press.
Part I. Falsifiability
Let's practice describing one way that conspiracy thinking is different from scientific thinking. One of the defining features of scientific thinking is that scientific claims are falsifiable. That is, scientists make claims/hypotheses that can be falsified (disproven) by collecting and analyzing evidence.
Most conspiracy theories a cannot be falsified, in part because they are stated in squishy, ambiguous terms, and in part because they are so multifaceted. As LaFrance writes,
In the face of inconvenient facts, [QAnon theory] has the ambiguity and adaptability to sustain a movement of this kind over time. For QAnon, every contradiction can be explained away; no form of argument can prevail against it.
Here is an example of some QAnon reasoning:
At one point, Harger [a believer she interviewed] told me I should look into what happened to John F. Kennedy Jr.—who died in 1999, when his airplane crashed into the Atlantic Ocean off Martha’s Vineyard—suggesting that Hillary Clinton had had him assassinated. (Alternatively, a contingent of QAnon believers say that JFK Jr. faked his death and that he’s a behind-the-scenes Trump supporter, and possibly even Q himself. Some anticipate his dramatic public return so that he can serve as Trump’s running mate in 2020.) When I asked Harger whether there’s any evidence to support the assassination claim, he flipped my question around: “Is there any evidence not to?”
a) Why is Harger's theory (above) about JFK Jr.'s assassination unfalsifiable?
b) And, How does the theory's unfalsifiable nature make it more likely that Harger can believe in QAnon?
c) Think like a scientist now. We can write a falsifiable statement (i.e., one that could be demonstrated by evidence to be wrong) related to JFK Jr. For example, to falsify the theory that "J.F.K. Jr. will become Trump's running mate in 2020" we could predict this statement:
"J.F.K. Jr.'s name will appear on the ballot with Trump in the 2020 Presidential election." (This is falsifiable because if someone else's name appears on the ballot, then this theory is wrong.)
Now see if you can come up with a falsifiable statement derived from the theory (above) that J.F.K. Jr.'s plane crash death was an assassination. Your statement can take the form, If J.F.K. Jr. was assassinated, then we should see __________.
Part II. Accepting evidence
One feature of QAnon theory that makes it impossible to falsify is that its believers do not accept any evidence from legitimate sources. That is, whereas scientists use independently verifiable data to support or falsify theories, QAnon believers do not accept the legitimacy of such data. Here's LaFrance again:
Q frequently rails against legitimate sources of information as fake. Shock and Harger [the two believers] rely on information they encounter on Facebook rather than news outlets run by journalists. They don’t read the local paper or watch any of the major television networks. “You can’t watch the news,” Shock said. “Your news channel ain’t gonna tell us [expletive].” Harger says he likes One America News Network. Not so long ago, he used to watch CNN, and couldn’t get enough of Wolf Blitzer. “We were glued to that; we always have been,” he said. “Until this man, Trump, really opened our eyes to what’s happening. And Q. Q is telling us beforehand the stuff that’s going to happen.” I asked Harger and Shock for examples of predictions that had come true. They could not provide specifics and instead encouraged me to do the research myself. When I asked them how they explained the events Q had predicted that never happened, such as Clinton’s arrest, they said that deception is part of Q’s plan. Shock added, “I think there were more things that were predicted that did happen.” Her tone was gentle rather than indignant.
d) Why does QAnon's rejection of legitimate sources of information help its followers maintain their beliefs?
As an aside, in the passage above, pay attention to the believer's statement that "deception is part of Q's plan." This feature virtually ensures that the theory remains unfalsifiable: Either believers will point to evidence that supports the theory, or, when faced with evidence that does not support the theory, they will claim that "deception is part of Q's plan." The theory is supported no matter what.
Part III. Confirmation bias.
In Chapter 2, you learn about quirks of human reasoning that make our intuition inferior to the scientific method. One of these quirks is the confirmation bias, the tendency of people to notice and remember evidence that confirms their beliefs, and to ignore or discount evidence that disconfirms them.
e) How might confirmation bias be at play in the passage above, about events that Q predicted but that never happened?
Confirmation bias is probably more prevalent when situations and theories are ambiguous. Ambiguity is clearly at play in QAnon, because Q usually makes general (rather than specific) threats. LaFrance writes,
—this is a very welcoming belief system, warm in its tolerance for contradiction—and are also what makes it possible for a practical man like Hayes [who has a youtube channel "explaining" Q's theories] to play the role that he does. QAnon is complex and confusing. People from all over the internet seek guidance from someone who seems levelheaded.
f) Explain how confirmation bias, rather than scientific thinking (which strives to objectively evaluate evidence both for and against a theory), can explain the following reasoning about who Q himself is:
Many QAnon adherents see significance in Trump tweets containing words that begin with the letter Q. Recent world events have rewarded them amply. “I am a great friend and admirer of the Queen & the United Kingdom,” Trump began one tweet on March 29. The day before, he had tweeted this: “I am giving consideration to a QUARANTINE.” The Q crowd seized on both tweets, arguing that if you ignore most of the letters in the messages, you’ll find a confession from Trump: “I am … Q.”
Coda.
QAnon might seem like a harmless academic example of conspiracy theories. And, as LaFrance suggests, some people follow it just for fun (it might have even started out as a parody). However, as LaFrance argues, it has actually incited violence in the past. For example, in 2017, one believer walked into a Washington, D.C. pizza shop with a rifle because he had believed QAnon message boards that children were being held hostage in the shop's basement (the building doesn't have one). (He was wrong: "'The intel on this wasn’t 100 percent,' Welch told The New York Times after his arrest.") LaFrance also reports, "In 2018, Reddit banned QAnon groups from its platform for inciting violence." In the United States, several congressional candidates have promoted QAnon's theories. Unfalsifiable conspiracy thinking might give our leaders a (false) sense of confidence, but it certainly doesn't belong in government discourse.
If QAnon supporters call for violence, revolt, or collective action and people do not think critically about what they say, this fake conspiracy theory will become a real threat to our democracy.
Here's a great story of a person who used to believe in QAnon and has subsequently changed his mind.
