Here's a link to CNN's coverage of a study on alcohol use and gray matter in the brain. The headline reads, "Drinking any amount of alcohol causes damage to the brain, study finds." Let's consider how well the study supports the causal claim the journalist (or the editor) attached to it. Here's one of CNN's introductory statements:
In an observational study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, researchers from the University of Oxford studied the relationship between the self-reported alcohol intake of some 25,000 people in the UK, and their brain scans.
a) The term, "observational study" in this context is synonymous with "correlational study." What are the key variables in the study? What does the quote above tell you about whether the variables were manipulated or measured?
Here's the next paragraph in the CNN summary:
The researchers noted that drinking had an effect on the brain's gray matter -- regions in the brain that make up "important bits where information is processed," according to lead author Anya Topiwala, a senior clinical researcher at Oxford.
"The more people drank, the less the volume of their gray matter," Topiwala said via email.
b) The CNN journalist erroneously wrote, "drinking had an effect on the brain's gray matter". Let's walk through whether this correlational study here can support the journalist's causal claim. The first criterion is covariance, which is about the study's results. Does the study show covariance?
c) The second criterion is temporal precedence. The journalist doesn't provide information about whether the drinking behavior (variable A) was measured first in time, before brain scans measured people's gray matter (variable B). What are the two potential directions this relationship might go?
d) The third criterion is internal validity. There could be some third variable, C, which is associated with both A and B. See if you can come up with a potential C variable that could reasonably correlate with both amount of drinking and reduction in gray matter.
You might have noticed that the opening to the CNN summary mentions that the study "has not yet been peer-reviewed".
e) What happens during the peer review process? Do you think journalists should summarize, for the general public, studies that have not yet been peer-reviewed?
f) The empirical report has not yet been published, but you can read more about the study where it is posted on the preprint site, medarxiv. What are some pros and cons of putting one's research on "arxiv" sites like these? Consider issues such as openness of science, peer review, and public interest.
Thanks again, Stephen Chew, for sharing the example!