It's been awhile since we've interrogated a frequency claim. Pew Research has some new data about U.S. Latinos' experience with speaking Spanish. Pew's synopsis is here. There's a lot of fascinating content and several interesting graphs on this link--visit it!
Before reading on, make a prediction: What percentage of U.S. Latinos would you estimate are able to carry on a conversation in Spanish?
Let's see if your prediction was accurate. The Pew report reads:
Most U.S. Latinos speak Spanish: 75% say they are able to carry on a conversation in Spanish pretty well or very well. And most Latinos (85%) say it is at least somewhat important for future generations of Latinos in the United States to speak Spanish.
Make another prediction: When they break it down by first-generation, second- or third-generation Latinos, who is most (and least) likely to have Spanish ability?
Here's the report:
24% of all Latino adults say they can only carry on a conversation in Spanish a little or not at all. Among third- or higher-generation Latinos, a much higher share are not Spanish speakers: Close to two-thirds (65%) of third- or higher-generation Latinos say they cannot carry on a conversation well in Spanish.
Another theme in Pew's poll was about whether Latinos who do not speak Spanish ever feel ashamed, or are ever teased, for their lack of ability. Here are some quotes from the report. First, some data on how many have heard such teasing:
Four-in-ten Hispanic adults say they hear other Hispanics make jokes, extremely often or often, about Hispanics who do not speak Spanish or don’t speak it well.
And some data about feeling shamed:
... not all Hispanics are Spanish speakers, and about half (54%) of non-Spanish-speaking Hispanics have been shamed by other Hispanics for not speaking Spanish.
Questions
a) The statement: "24% of all Latino adults say they can only carry on a conversation in Spanish a little or not at all" is a frequency claim. What is the variable, and what are its likely levels?
b) While most of the statements in this report are frequency claims, here's one that's not: "Hispanics who consider their Hispanic identity to be extremely or very important to how they think about themselves are more likely than other Hispanics to say it’s important for future generations to speak Spanish."
What kind of claim is this?
What are the two variables in this claim?
To support the statement, "75% say they are able to carry on a conversation in Spanish pretty well or very well", we need to know more about how well the question was asked (Chapter 6 issues--construct validity of a poll), and also how the study got its sample (Chapter 7, external validity issues). Fortunately, Pew makes its methods completely transparent (the questionnaire is available as a pdf on the link here...click on "topline questionnaire").
The item in question was worded: How well, if at all, would you say you can carry on a conversation in SPANISH, both understanding and speaking?
The response options are Very well, pretty well, just a little, not at all
c) What do you think of this question? Is it double-barreled? Leading? Negatively worded?
d) What do you think of the response options? Would they foster yea-saying? fence-sitting? Why or why not?
Now here's a quote from the methodology section about the sampling used in the survey. I found this information from clicking on the "Methodology" link on report's home page.
In the quotes below, I've added bold to several terms you learned about in Chapter 7:
The American Trends Panel (ATP), created by Pew Research Center, is a nationally representative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults. Panelists participate via self-administered web surveys. Panelists who do not have internet access at home are provided with a tablet and wireless internet connection. Interviews are conducted in both English and Spanish. The panel is being managed by Ipsos.
Data in this report is drawn from the panel wave conducted from Aug. 1-14, 2022, and included oversamples of Hispanic, Asian and Black adults, as well as 18- to 29-year-old Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in order to provide more precise estimates of the opinions and experiences of these smaller demographic subgroups. These oversampled groups are weighted back to reflect their correct proportions in the population.
[...]
The overall target population (i.e., population of interest) for this survey was noninstitutionalized persons ages 18 and older living in the U.S., including Alaska and Hawaii. It featured a stratified random sample from the ATP in which Hispanic, Asian and Black adults, as well as 18- to 29-year-old Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, were selected with certainty. The remaining panelists were sampled at rates designed to ensure that the share of respondents in each stratum is proportional to its share of the U.S. adult population to the greatest extent possible. Respondent weights are adjusted to account for differential probabilities of selection as described in the Weighting section below. [...]
e) Read the quote above and identify the bold-faced terms. Look up any you don't remember in Chapter 7.
f) Based on the information above, can we generalize the result from this survey to the target population of U.S. Latinos? That is, can we conclude that about 76% of U.S. Latinos can carry on a conversation in Spanish? Why or why not?
Finally, here's a comment from the methodology section that informs us about how Pew checks for response biases:
Data quality checks
To ensure high-quality data, the Center’s researchers performed data quality checks to identify any respondents showing clear patterns of satisficing. This includes checking for very high rates of leaving questions blank, as well as always selecting the first or last answer presented. As a result of this checking, 12 ATP and seven KP respondents were removed from the survey dataset prior to weighting and analysis.
g) "Satisficing" is not a term you learned in Chapter 6, but. can you figure out what it means from this context?